![]() His failure to call the vote he had trailed ultimately weakened his position for the remainder of his premiership. ![]() However, the experience of Gordon Brown in 2007 should serve as the ultimate warning that once you set such general election rumours in motion, it’s hard to back down from them without losing face.Īfter letting everyone believe an early election was imminent, Brown dithered. If she starts to return ambiguous responses such as “not now” or “I couldn’t comment”, or if she changes the subject, that could indicate that she’s considering her options. Look out for changes in Truss’s language, tone and emphasis in response to questions about an election over the coming weeks. However, in reality it is what happens after the job is secured that really counts. Suggesting the nation be put through the turmoil of a general election is not a vote winning strategy, particularly at a time when the electorate is weary and concerned with other things. It’s par for the course for prospective prime ministers to talk down the possibility of an election before they actually get the job. A change of tune when asked the magic question If she can push the Tory poll figures back towards 40% (where it hovered for many years until recently), and there is a corresponding Labour fall, then it might make her think it’s a good idea to trigger a vote. A significant lead may encourage her to roll the dice and call a vote. Truss will be hopeful of returning her party to a healthy poll lead at the very least. ![]() Theresa May inherited a healthy parliamentary majority from her predecessor and then recklessly squandered it with an early vote that saw her forced into minority government. ![]() True, Boris Johnson secured an 80-seat parliamentary majority when he called an election in December 2019, shortly after taking office as a mid-term prime minister, but one doesn’t need to look further than his immediate predecessor to see how easily fortunes can swing in the other direction. Public opinion can be volatile once you’ve called an election so what looks like a strong lead can suddenly evaporate. Whether this materialises – and how large a lead she achieves – will be key in her decision to hold an election sooner or to hold off. Truss will be hoping for a poll bounce as the fresh face in 10 Downing Street. ![]()
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